In an increasingly difficult global environment, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its growth forecasts for the global economy and the euro zone at the start of the year: For 2019, real growth of 3.5% (previous year: +3.7%) and 1.6% (previous year: +1.8%), respectively, is expected. The forecasts for German gross domestic product, at plus 1.1% (ifo) and plus 1.8% (IfW), are also lower than the most recent figure from the Joint Economic Forecast (+1.9%). Nevertheless, an upward trend is set to continue, driven mainly by the robust domestic economy. For example, the research institutes expect the growth of private consumption to speed up compared to 2018 given persistently positive employment and income prospects. The forecasts range between plus 1.2%(ifo) and plus 1.9% (IfW). However, there are significant forecast uncertainties, due in particular to the growing number of trade restrictions and conflicts, the UK’s potentially disorderly exit from the EU, and the strained budget situation in Italy.
The German net TV advertising market proved volatile in 2018, and the agency groups’ forecasts for 2019 also vary. This is related to the advertising industry, which responds quickly and often procyclically to the general economic situation. An important indicator here is private consumption, but economic forecasts naturally involve uncertainties. It therefore remains to be seen whether and what implications macroeconomic risks will have for the advertising market. There are also sector-specific developments that are reducing visibility. Expectations for the German TV advertising market currently diverge between minus 1.6% (Magna Global) and an optimistic plus 2% (ZenithOptimedia).
103 / Forecast for Gross Domestic Product, Private Consumption and Net Advertising Market in Countries Important for Prosiebensat.1 Group in %, change vs. previous year
Source: GER: Destatis, ifo Economic Forecast Winter 2018. / AT: Austrian Institute for Economic Research (WiFO), press release of December 20, 2018. / CH: Swiss Federal Statistical Office (BFS), State Secretariat Economic Affairs (SECO), press release of December 18, 2018.
1 ZenithOptimedia, Advertising Expenditure Forecasts December 2018, figures adjusted on a net basis, nonetheless methodological differences between different countries and sources.
In contrast, in-stream video advertising is likely to continue its dynamic development and drive growth on the online advertising market. The research institutes anticipate a net plus of 7% (ZenithOptimedia) or 10.4% (Magna Global). For the German advertising market as a whole, Magna Global anticipates net growth of plus 2.4%; ZenithOptimedia forecasts growth of 1.7% for 2019.
The German e-commerce market is expected to have a market volume of around EUR 87 billion by 2022. According to the Institut für Handelsforschung (IFH) in Cologne, the average annual growth between 2017 and 2022 is likely to amount to 8.5%. Online retail’s share in retail is expected to increase to 13.4% in 2022. Mobile shopping is set to increase to 65% of online revenues; this would equate to online mobile revenues of around EUR 57 billion by 2022.
The relevant sectors for ProSiebenSat.1 Group are developing as follows here: The market for online comparison sites in the fields of energy, telco, car insurance and consumer loans is likely to grow to a volume of around EUR 895 million by 2020. This equates to an increase of 24% since 2018. According to Statista’s Digital Market Outlook, the online dating market is likely to grow by 8% by 2020. OC&C Strategy Consultants forecasts annual growth rates for the experiences market of approximately 5% to 7% until 2022.